Dynamic linkages between agricultural production and economic growth in fragile economies: the case of Somalia

This study investigates the long-run relationship between agricultural production and economic growth in Somalia from 1990 to 2021 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality tests. Results show that agriculture, trade openness, and the labor force significantly drive Somalia’s economic performance, while inflation and export dependency hinder growth. A 1% increase in agricultural production raises GDP by 1.02% in the long run and 1.06% in the short run, confirming agriculture’s pivotal role in economic stability. Granger causality results reveal a bidirectional relationship between agricultural output and GDP, highlighting agriculture’s role both as a growth engine and a beneficiary of economic expansion. The findings emphasize the need for policies that enhance agricultural productivity, improve trade, and strengthen human capital. Recommended measures include long-term investment in irrigation, storage, and transport infrastructure, expansion of value-added agricultural exports, and effective inflation control. By prioritizing these strategies, Somalia can leverage its agricultural base to achieve sustainable growth and resilience in a fragile economic context.This study shows that agricultural production is the key driver of Somalia’s economic growth, with a strong bidirectional relationship between agriculture and GDP. The findings highlight the need for policies that enhance agricultural productivity, diversify exports, and stabilize inflation, offering practical strategies for fostering resilience and sustainable growth in fragile economies.