An econometric analysis of the determinants of rural household poverty in Somalia

Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world, with over half of its population living below the national poverty line. In particular, rural poverty remains a critical issue, yet studies addressing the main factors affecting rural poverty are scarce. To this end, this study aimed to explore the major determinants of rural household poverty using cross-sectional data from the second wave of the Somali High-Frequency Survey. A binary logistic regression model was employed, and four model diagnostic tests were conducted to ensure the robustness of the findings. To further validate the results, additional robustness checks were performed using the linear probability model and the Heckman two-step regression model. Regression results consistently show that household size and distance to the nearest health center are positively and significantly related to rural poverty. On the contrary, household head literacy, access to agricultural land, livestock holdings, access to mobile money services, and remittances are negatively and significantly associated with rural poverty. Therefore, the study recommends that the Federal Government of Somalia and its partners enhance literacy, reduce household size, promote remittances, expand mobile money services, strengthen the livestock sector, implement land reforms, and improve infrastructure to support rural healthcare access.This study identifies the key drivers of rural household poverty in Somalia using nationally representative survey data and robust econometric techniques. It highlights the significant role of household head literacy, access to agricultural land, livestock holdings, mobile money services, and remittances in reducing poverty, while emphasizing the negative impact of larger household size and increased distance to health centers. The findings offer actionable policy guidance for the federal government of Somalia and development partners aiming to reduce rural poverty in fragile settings.