Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model

Somalia, a country challenged by ongoing conflict and economic instability, faces significant environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. This study investigates the effects of key macroeconomic variables, economic growth, population growth, and inflation, on deforestation from 1993 to 2021. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis explores both short- and long-term relationships. Stationarity of variables was tested through ADF, PP, and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests, while diagnostic tests ensured the robustness of the model. The results confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating that economic growth initially intensifies deforestation but later contributes to its decline after a critical GDP level. Population growth is found to significantly drive deforestation in the long run, whereas inflation shows no notable impact. These findings underscore the need for policies that foster sustainable economic growth, manage population pressures, and conserve natural resources. The study recommends integrated strategies, including community-based initiatives and regulatory reforms, to promote environmental sustainability in Somalia.This study analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic factors economic growth, population growth, and inflation and deforestation in Somalia using an ARDL approach. By confirming the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, the research provides new insights into how economic development initially accelerates but eventually mitigates environmental degradation. The findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers in designing strategies that balance economic growth with environmental sustainability, particularly in conflict-affected and developing regions like Somalia.