Unrest in Kazakhstan: Economic background and causes

The article studies the economic background and reasons for the protest actions of the population on the example of major riots in the regions of Kazakhstan in early 2022. The theory of relative deprivation explains the occurrence of unrest by the growth of social tension in groups of the population who are dissatisfied with living conditions. According to the authors, the causes of the unrest were economic factors. There are many studies on political, inter-ethnic, inter-religious, and other factors of protest actions, but not enough research on the economic factors of urban unrest. The study aims to identify the economic causes of the outbreak of violence in the country’s regions. The research methodology was based on comparative statistical analysis and building a probit model based on panel data. We have established that the growth of the subsistence minimum, the increase in the proportion of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum, and, especially, the depth of poverty and the acuity of poverty are reasons for social tension, which, after the small trigger, turned into large-scale urban unrest. Moreover, neither income inequality nor rising unemployment was a significant factor in the protest actions. The results indicate the need for the authorities to monitor the socio-economic indicators of the regions and take measures to prevent their significant deterioration, especially the depth and acuity of poverty. A similar empirical approach can be applied to analyzing the economic causes of unrest in regions of other countries.