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Relative income dynamics of individuals in New Zealand

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  • John Creedy
  • Norman Gemmell
  • Athene Laws

Abstract

This paper reports estimates of simple models of income dynamics, using longitudinal income data for 1994 to 2012 from New Zealand Inland Revenue. Income changes are described using a simple autoregressive stochastic process in which Galtonian regression is combined with serial correlation in the stochastic term. The parameters of the model have convenient interpretations. Substantial regression towards the mean combined with negative serial correlation is observed, with remarkable parameter stability over the whole period. The estimates imply that, on average, relatively high income individuals have lower proportional increases in income from year to year compared with lower income individuals, and those with large increases in one year are more likely to experience decreases the following year. These dynamics are shown to be sufficient to ensure that cross-sectional indices of inequality fall as the accounting period increases.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Athene Laws, 2021. "Relative income dynamics of individuals in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 203-220, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:55:y:2021:i:2:p:203-220
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1665574
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    Cited by:

    1. Creedy, John & Quy, Ta, 2022. "Income Mobility in New Zealand 2007–2020: Combining Household Survey and Census Data," Working Paper Series 25797, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2022. "Income Inequality and the Accounting Period in New Zealand: Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Paper Series 21899, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2022. "Inter-Decile Income Movements of Individuals in New Zealand: Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Paper Series 21357, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

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