Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data
Dynamical epidemic studies are often based on the reported number of cases. For various purposes it would be helpful to have information about the numbers of susceptibles, but these data are rarely available. We show that under general theoretical assumptions it is possible to reconstruct, up to linear scaling parameters, the dynamics of the susceptible class, as well as the rate of recruitment to the susceptible class, based only on case report data. We demonstrate that susceptible data reconstructed by our method improve the performance of forecasting models. Our estimate of susceptible class dynamics also can be used to estimate the age distribution of recruitment into the susceptible class, if the birth rate is known from independent data. Simulation experiments show that the reconstruction is robust to errors in the reporting scheme. This work was motivated by measles in large developed-world cities prior to immunization programs; our theoretical assumptions are empirically justified for measles but should also be applicable to some other diseases with permanent immunity.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/GMPS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GMPS20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:1-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.