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Modelling regional population growth in China


  • Jianfa Shen
  • Nigel Spence


This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level. The model is calibrated using the 1982 census data and 1987 one-percent population survey data. Other data sources have also been used to estimate and prepare necessary input data for the multiregional population model. Three sets of multiregional population projections of China at provincial level are made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national population trend is a combination of various regional population trends. Some regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early as the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of the next century.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfa Shen & Nigel Spence, 1997. "Modelling regional population growth in China," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 241-274.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:241-274
    DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525434

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    Cited by:

    1. Huabin Wei & Yanqing Jiang & Yuxing Zhang, 2015. "A Review of Two Population Growth Models and an Analysis of Factors Affecting the Chinese Population Growth," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(1), pages 8-20, March.


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