Analyzing causes of neonatal and child deaths in India: a multiple decrement model and joinpoint regression approach

Under-five mortality is a crucial indicator of a nation’s healthcare system and social well-being. It reflects not only the availability and quality of healthcare services but also the broader socio-economic conditions that influence child health. Over the past few years, several leading causes of neonatal and child deaths have been identified across India. In order to address this issue, it is necessary to identify the probabilities, force of mortality, annual percent change, and solutions to these decrements. For this study, data from John Hopkins University’s project “Maternal, Newborn and Child Causes of Death” has been used to show the different causes of neonatal and child mortality in India. Multiple decrement models and Joinpoint regression analysis have been used to compare, evaluate, and determine the percent change in neonatal (0–27 days) and child deaths (1–59 months) in India for the period 2000–2013. The proportion of deaths due to preterm birth complications was found to be a major cause of neonatal decrement every single year, and their proportion was found to increase from 0.3239 in 2000 to 0.4367 in 2013. Diarrhea (0.2633 in 2000 to 0.2279 in 2013) emerged as a persistent leading cause of child mortality, consistently contributing a substantial proportion throughout the years. Pneumonia was found to be the leading cause of death from 2000 to 2008. After 2008, other causes emerged as the leading contributors to child mortality. The study revealed that preterm complications, intrapartum-related events, and sepsis/meningitis/tetanus were the major potential causes of neonatal mortality in India, while pneumonia, diarrhea, and other causes were the leading causes of child mortality.