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Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella

Author

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  • MARCOS AMAKU
  • RAYMUNDO AZEVEDO

Abstract

The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy between results and official notification data before vaccination era leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80% of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total number of infections compared to notification data.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Amaku & Raymundo Azevedo, 2010. "Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 91-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:91-100
    DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689502
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    2. Ricardo Arraes de Alencar Ximenes & Celina Maria Turchi Martelli & Marcos Amaku & Ana Marli C Sartori & Patricia Coelho de Soárez & Hillegonda Maria Dutilh Novaes & Leila Maria Moreira Beltrão Pereira, 2014. "Modelling the Force of Infection for Hepatitis A in an Urban Population-Based Survey: A Comparison of Transmission Patterns in Brazilian Macro-Regions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.

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