Transmission Probabilities and Reproduction Numbers for Sexually Transmitted Infections with Variable Infectivity: Application to the Spread of HIV Between Low- and High-Activity Populations
Probabilities of transmission and numbers of secondary cases are given for an infection which is transmitted sexually by individuals engaged in multiple partnerships with specified durations and timings. The results applied to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) hinge on a function which captures the dependence of the per coital act probability of transmission on the time since disease onset and on the duration of infection at death. Reproduction numbers are derived in a heterogeneous population consisting of low- and high-activity men and women. An expression for the basic reproduction number R0 of this system sheds light on the role of concurrency, on the timing of the partnerships, and on bridging effects. A high-activity group can cause a significant epidemic outbreak no matter how small the bridging effect, as long as it is not 0. Only if the bridging effect is eliminated altogether can the growth factor in the low-activity group be reduced independently of what happens in the high-activity group. The role of the relationship between client and sex worker and the role of bridging populations in sub-Saharan Africa are assessed.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/GMPS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GMPS20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:266-287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.