Understanding the determinants of fleet size optimization in dry bulk shipping: insights from a systematic literature review and Delphi study

Fleet optimization is a highly critical decision-making process for dry bulk shipping companies. Shipowners must navigate a range of factors, such as freight rates, shipping market cycles, regulatory changes, and economic conditions to maintain fleet profitability and operational efficiency. Despite having access to abundant market data, many shipowners and brokers in the dry bulk shipping industry periodically make mistakes in balancing the optimum fleet size. This research addresses the challenge and explores the complex decision-making process involved in fleet size optimization by highlighting the key indicators that should ideally be considered to enhance the process. To assist companies and brokers in the dry bulk shipping industry, the study offers a systematic and holistic approach to the challenge of fleet optimization. A novel conceptual framework was developed through the integration of systematic literature review and Delphi study, identifying seven primary dimensions and fifty essential determinants for determining optimal fleet size. The obtained dimensions include ‘Company Specifications,’ ‘Financial Variables,’ ‘Shipping Markets’ Variables,’ ‘Ship Specifications and Costs,’ ‘Shipowners’ Characteristics and Preferences,’ ‘Political and Legal Factors,’ and ‘Ports and Shipping Routes.’ The findings aim to minimize inefficiencies in fleet management and support more consistent strategic decision-making in the dry bulk shipping industry.