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The anatomy of public debt reversals: new empirical insights from developing countries

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  • Rabia Rafique
  • Asad Nisar
  • Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah

Abstract

This study aims to investigate how different policy shocks help erode public debt ratios across a large sample of developing countries. Using Jordas (2005) local projection model, the study’s findings show a one percent shock to policy variables indeed erodes the public debt ratio; the effects, however, largely depend on appropriate timing and design of policy shock. In addition, expenditure-led policies tend to be more powerful as compared to revenue-based measures in eroding the public debt ratios. The study’s key policy suggestion is to prioritize gradual implementation of policy options in eroding the debt ratios over the medium-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2026. "The anatomy of public debt reversals: new empirical insights from developing countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 77-96, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:19:y:2026:i:1:p:77-96
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2024.2363025
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