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Asymmetric fiscal multipliers in India – Evidence from a non-linear cointegration

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  • Javed Ahmad Bhat
  • Naresh Kumar Sharma

Abstract

We attempted to scrutinize the efficacy of fiscal policy tools on key macroeconomic variables in case of India. Applying an asymmetric cointegration framework, the impact of public spending hike on output growth is significantly favourable and that of the decrease in it is insignificant. Similarly, effect of tax hikes is more pronouncing than tax cuts. Comparatively, results report more effectiveness of spending hikes than the tax cuts to avoid an economic downturn and tax hikes than spending cuts to cool down a heating economy. Private consumption mimics response of output growth, whereas response of private investment follows the substitutability hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Javed Ahmad Bhat & Naresh Kumar Sharma, 2021. "Asymmetric fiscal multipliers in India – Evidence from a non-linear cointegration," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 157-179, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:14:y:2021:i:2:p:157-179
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2020.1818802
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