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The finite-time ruin probability of a discrete-time risk model with GARCH discounted factors and dependent risks

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  • Rongfei Liu
  • Dingcheng Wang
  • Fenglong Guo

Abstract

The finite-time ruin probability of a discrete-time risk model with dependent stochastic discount factors and dependent insurance and financial risks is investigated in this paper. Assume that the stochastic discount factors follow a GARCH process and the one-period insurance and financial risks form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs, which are the copies of a random pair with a bivariate Sarmanov dependent distribution. When the common distribution of claim-sizes is heavy-tailed, we establish an asymptotic estimate for the finite-time ruin probability. Applying the result to a special case, we also get conservative asymptotic bounds. A numerical simulation is given at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Rongfei Liu & Dingcheng Wang & Fenglong Guo, 2018. "The finite-time ruin probability of a discrete-time risk model with GARCH discounted factors and dependent risks," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 4170-4186, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:lstaxx:v:47:y:2018:i:17:p:4170-4186
    DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2017.1371753
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    Cited by:

    1. Abouzar Bazyari, 2023. "On the Ruin Probabilities in a Discrete Time Insurance Risk Process with Capital Injections and Reinsurance," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(2), pages 1623-1650, August.

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