Crossing the fairness threshold: skepticism, risk and zero-sum thinking, in Fukushima’s decommissioning management

The decommission process from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has rekindled public distrust in governmental crisis management. This study introduces a cognitive framework to explore why technocratic decision-making and communications may fail to address policy skepticism. Using stratified survey data from Fukushima and Tokyo (N = 1,022), we analyze how perceptions of procedural fairness shape public policy skepticism. In addition, we examine the mediating roles of risk perception and zero-sum thinking, and how these pathways are moderated by affective evaluations in impacting a tendency to favor idealized alternatives over official solutions. Our results indicate that procedural fairness significantly reduces both risk perception and zero-sum thinking, which subsequently influence policy skepticism. Affective evaluations amplify these effects, especially when risk perceptions are high. Regional differences emerged: Fukushima residents’ policy preferences are more directly influenced by fairness and emotion, while Tokyo respondents exhibit a more rational cognitively mediated pathway. These findings suggest that technical expertise alone is insufficient for legitimacy in high-stakes risk governance without considering emotions and beliefs.