Examining individuals’ protective behavioral decision-making dynamics over repeated risks of heat waves in the American West

As climate change intensifies worldwide, individuals are facing heightened risks of extreme weather events. Predominant theories and empirical research point to five constructs that underpin individuals’ protective behavioral decision-making during extreme weather events: risk perception, efficacy, negative affect, protective actions, and negative experiences. Although the dynamic nature of protective behavioral decision-making is embedded in theories like the Protective Action Decision Model, few studies have examined whether and how these constructs relate over time – that is, their temporal dynamics. In this study, we applied multivariate latent change score models to two-occasion panel data collected from 160 adults in the American West as they faced repeated risks of heat waves in September 2022 and August 2023. We found that individuals’ risk perception, efficacy, and protective actions increased over the two heat waves. Additionally, higher levels of all five constructs during the first heat wave were associated with shallower rates of subsequent change, suggesting constructs may stabilize over time. Finally, the levels of each construct during the first heat wave were not related to subsequent changes in any other constructs, except for higher risk perception predicting a shallower rate of change in efficacy. Taken together, these results suggest that individuals’ psychological, behavioral, and experiential trajectories over repeated risks of heat waves may not be as dynamically related as cross-sectional associations suggest. Theoretically, our results elaborate upon the temporal dynamics of protective behavioral decision-making during extreme weather events. Practically, our results suggest that risk communication about extreme weather events should consider the person-specific starting levels of each construct, target multiple constructs simultaneously, and bolster efficacy when elevating risk perception to compensate for any potential dampening effect over time.