IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlasa/v108y2013i501p7-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and Forecasting Daily Electricity Load Curves: A Hybrid Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Haeran Cho
  • Yannig Goude
  • Xavier Brossat
  • Qiwei Yao

Abstract

We propose a hybrid approach for the modeling and the short-term forecasting of electricity loads. Two building blocks of our approach are (1) modeling the overall trend and seasonality by fitting a generalized additive model to the weekly averages of the load and (2) modeling the dependence structure across consecutive daily loads via curve linear regression. For the latter, a new methodology is proposed for linear regression with both curve response and curve regressors. The key idea behind the proposed methodology is dimension reduction based on a singular value decomposition in a Hilbert space, which reduces the curve regression problem to several ordinary (i.e., scalar) linear regression problems. We illustrate the hybrid method using French electricity loads between 1996 and 2009, on which we also compare our method with other available models including the Électricité de France operational model. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Haeran Cho & Yannig Goude & Xavier Brossat & Qiwei Yao, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Daily Electricity Load Curves: A Hybrid Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 7-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:108:y:2013:i:501:p:7-21
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2012.722900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01621459.2012.722900
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01621459.2012.722900?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amara-Ouali, Yvenn & Fasiolo, Matteo & Goude, Yannig & Yan, Hui, 2023. "Daily peak electrical load forecasting with a multi-resolution approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1272-1286.
    2. Jahanpour, Ehsan & Ko, Hoo Sang & Nof, Shimon Y., 2016. "Collaboration protocols for sustainable wind energy distribution networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 496-507.
    3. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2018. "Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 149-164.
    4. Mingotti, Nicola & Lillo Rodríguez, Rosa Elvira & Romo, Juan, 2015. "A Random Walk Test for Functional Time Series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1506, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Elías, Antonio & Jiménez, Raúl & Shang, Han Lin, 2022. "On projection methods for functional time series forecasting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    7. Suqi Zhang & Ningjing Zhang & Ziqi Zhang & Ying Chen, 2022. "Electric Power Load Forecasting Method Based on a Support Vector Machine Optimized by the Improved Seagull Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Guo, Shaojun & Qiao, Xinghao, 2023. "On consistency and sparsity for high-dimensional functional time series with application to autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Lozinskaia, Agata & Redkina, Anastasiia & Shenkman, Evgeniia, 2020. "Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 5-25.
    11. Brenda López Cabrera & Franziska Schulz, 2017. "Forecasting Generalized Quantiles of Electricity Demand: A Functional Data Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 127-136, January.
    12. Abdelmonaem Jornaz & V. A. Samaranayake, 2019. "A Multi-Step Approach to Modeling the 24-hour Daily Profiles of Electricity Load using Daily Splines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120774, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Nedellec, Raphael & Cugliari, Jairo & Goude, Yannig, 2014. "GEFCom2012: Electric load forecasting and backcasting with semi-parametric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 375-381.
    15. Zhou, Kaile & Fu, Chao & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Big data driven smart energy management: From big data to big insights," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 215-225.
    16. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    17. Moral-Carcedo, Julián & Pérez-García, Julián, 2019. "Time of day effects of temperature and daylight on short term electricity load," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 169-183.
    18. Salahuddin Khan, 2023. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using a New Intelligence-Based Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.
    19. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2018. "Rule-based autoregressive moving average models for forecasting load on special days: A case study for France," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 259-268.
    20. Cees Diks & Bram Wouters, 2023. "Noise reduction for functional time series," Papers 2307.02154, arXiv.org.
    21. Wang, Bo & Deng, Nana & Li, Haoxiang & Zhao, Wenhui & Liu, Jie & Wang, Zhaohua, 2021. "Effect and mechanism of monetary incentives and moral suasion on residential peak-hour electricity usage," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    22. VandenHeuvel, Daniel & Wu, Jinran & Wang, You-Gan, 2023. "Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1573-1592.
    23. Moral-Carcedo, Julián & Pérez-García, Julián, 2017. "Integrating long-term economic scenarios into peak load forecasting: An application to Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 682-695.
    24. Souhaib Ben Taieb & Raphael Huser & Rob J. Hyndman & Marc G. Genton, 2015. "Probabilistic time series forecasting with boosted additive models: an application to smart meter data," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    25. Fang, Qin & Guo, Shaojun & Qiao, Xinghao, 2022. "Finite sample theory for high-dimensional functional/scalar time series with applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114637, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:108:y:2013:i:501:p:7-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UASA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.