The evolution of the global arms trade network: A stochastic actor-oriented model approach

The global arms trade has received growing scholarly attention against the backdrop of increasing regional conflicts worldwide. Using social network analysis and the stochastic actor-oriented model, we test a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary mechanisms of the global arms trade network. Our study reveals the scale-free properties and hierarchical stratification of the global arms trade network. We find that the United States and Russia maintain their dominant positions in global arms exports, while countries such as China and India have gained significantly higher standing within the network. Endogenous network effects, bilateral relations, and national characteristics simultaneously shape the evolutionary trajectory of global arms trade. Transitivity, preferential attachment, geographic distance, defense cooperation, political stability, and military expenditure exert differential impacts on the evolution of the global arms trade network. Our findings reveal the evolutionary characteristics of global arms trade and provide a more explanatory analytical framework to elucidate the determinants of its evolution.