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The impact of civil war on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries

Author

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  • Chengchun Li
  • Syed Mansoob Murshed
  • Sailesh Tanna

Abstract

We investigate the impact of civil war on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries. We employ a new data-set that disaggregates FDI inflows to primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Second, we control for a richer set of economic and institutional variables that could determine FDI inflows including population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the degree of trade openness, exchange rate variability, inflation, the governance structure of the host country using International Country Risk Guide data and its regime type using the POLITY autocracy–democracy data. We also address the reverse causality between FDI and conflict and the potential endogeneity of explanatory variables by employing dynamic system generalised method of moments (GMM) techniques in estimation. Our results indicate that primary sector FDI flows to developing countries are not significantly affected by civil war, whereas secondary and tertiary sectors FDI are more sensitive to such outbreak, potentially leading to reversals of existing FDI. Among institutional variables, government stability and control of corruption are more significant compared to regime type, law and order, and bureaucratic quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengchun Li & Syed Mansoob Murshed & Sailesh Tanna, 2017. "The impact of civil war on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 488-507, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:26:y:2017:i:4:p:488-507
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2016.1270347
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    Cited by:

    1. Emel SIKLAR & Ilyas SIKLAR, 2022. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Macroeconomic Dynamics? An S-VAR Approach for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 8(3), pages 85-103, 09-2022.
    2. Da Teng & Douglas B. Fuller & Chengchun Li, 2018. "Institutional change and corporate governance diversity in China’s SOEs," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 273-293, May.
    3. Shakil Ahmad & Muhammad Waqas Khan, 2021. "Investigating The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) And Foreign Remittances On Economic Growth In Pakistan (1990-2018): A Time Series Analysis Using Ardl Model Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(3), pages 1-7, September.
    4. repec:thr:techub:10029:y:2022:i:1:p:259-270 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Misztal Piotr, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment, Production Factors Productivity and Income Inequalities in Selected CEE Countries," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 146-172, June.
    6. Cieślik Andrzej & Gurshev Oleg, 2020. "Determinants of inward FDI in Ukraine: Does political stability matter?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(3), pages 243-254, September.
    7. Okara, Assi, 2023. "Does foreign direct investment promote political stability? Evidence from developing economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Chengchun Li & Sailesh Tanna & Baseerit Nissah, 2023. "The effect of institutions on the foreign direct investment‐growth nexus: What matters most?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1999-2031, July.
    9. Cruz, Manuel David & Jha, Chandan Kumar & Kırşanlı, Fatih & Sedai, Ashish Kumar, 2023. "Corruption and FDI in natural resources: The role of economic downturn and crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Morgan, Stephen & Farris, Jarrad & Johnson, Michael E., 2022. "Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)," USDA Miscellaneous 329077, United States Department of Agriculture.
    11. Andrea Coveri & Elena Paglialunga & Antonello Zanfei, 2023. "Global value chains, functional diversification and within-country inequality: an empirical assessment," Working Papers 2302, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2023.
    12. Elena Paglialunga & Andrea Coveri & Antonello Zanfei, 2020. "Climate change and inequality in a global context. Exploring climate induced disparities and the reaction of economic systems," Working Papers 2003, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2020.
    13. Glen Biglaiser & Hoon Lee & Joseph L Staats, 2017. "The effects of political and legal constraints on expropriation in natural resource and manufacturing sectors," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 311-333, December.
    14. Lemaire Thibault, 2023. "Civil Conflicts and Exchange Rate Misalignment: Evidence from MENA and Arab League Members," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 101-130, August.
    15. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Does terrorism affect greenfield investment? A structural gravity approach," ThE Papers 22/06, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    16. Ahsan Kibria & Reza Oladi & Sherzod B. Akhundjanov, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and civil violence in Sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 948-981, April.
    17. Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Foreign direct investment and relative capacity: Theory and evidence," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1175-1214, October.
    18. Mihalache-O'Keef, Andreea S., 2018. "Whose greed, whose grievance, and whose opportunity? Effects of foreign direct investments (FDI) on internal conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 187-206.
    19. Chengchun Li & Yun Luo & Glauco Vita, 2020. "Institutional difference and outward FDI: evidence from China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1837-1862, April.
    20. Shakil Ahmad & Muhammad Waqas Khan, 2021. "Investigating The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) And Foreign Remittances On Economic Growth In Pakistan (1990-2018): A Time Series Analysis Using Ardl Model Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, March.
    21. Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim, 2020. "Nexus between Economic Volatility, Trade Openness and FDI: An Application of ARDL, NARDL and Asymmetric Causality," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(7), pages 790-807, July.
    22. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Does Terrorism Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Working Papers 1913, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    23. Sherif Elhalaby & Adel Sarea & Awwad Alnesafi & Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy, 2023. "The Adoption of AAOIFI Standards by Islamic Banks: Understanding the Microeconomic Consequences," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    24. Nguyen Huu Cung, 2020. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Vietnam," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6.
    25. Dr. Ameenullah Aman & Dr. Usman Ahmad & Sumera Muhammad Saleem, 2021. "Investigating the Link Between Macroeconomic Factors and Income Inequality of Asian Countries," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 376-387, December.

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