Development of a framework for understanding unsold timber offerings from the US National Forest System

Timber sales from the US National Forest System (NFS) can provide ecological and economic benefits. Unsold (“no-bid”) offerings can result in delays, additional costs, and missed targets. We used mixed methods, including analysis of administrative data, synthesis of research, and semi-structured interviews to understand situations considered “no-bid” offerings by different stakeholders. We measured prevalence, identified causes, and generated a framework for communicating interlinkages. From 2007 to 2020, the volume not sold at first offering was 11.9% nationally. However, a substantial amount is sold subsequently, leaving 2.7% never sold. Regions with the highest percentage never sold include Alaska, Southwestern, and Pacific Southwest. A new conceptual framework developed from a literature review and interviews with NFS and industry employees identified proximate causes and underlying factors. Proximate causes include road construction, equipment requirements, and timber condition; whereas underlying factors include staffing, communication, and appraisal methods. These insights can aid communication and help develop future strategies.