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Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment

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  • Fatemeh Khosravi
  • Urmila Jha-Thakur

Abstract

Planning for the future is uncertain, and scenario analysis is a method of coping with the uncertainties of future plans. This paper addresses how to deal with future uncertainties by using scenario analysis as a possible approach for conducting a strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Although scenario-based approaches have been linked to strategic planning and SEA, this paper for the first time proposes how a combined approach may be implemented using specific tools and methodologies and, further on, it also implements the first three stages of the six stages proposed for the ‘scenario-based strategic planning’ approach. This work is an attempt to standardize SEA and scenario analysis as a combined approach. The three stages are tested within the Tourism Development Plan of the Iranian province of Gilan, which has been selected as a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemeh Khosravi & Urmila Jha-Thakur, 2019. "Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(6), pages 979-1000, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:62:y:2019:i:6:p:979-1000
    DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2018.1456913
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    Cited by:

    1. Tommy Quansah & Bernd Frick & Markus Lang & Kieran Maguire, 2021. "The Importance of Club Revenues for Player Salaries and Transfer Expenses—How Does the Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) Impact the English Premier League?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.

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