Alternative consequences and asymmetry of results: their importance for policy decision making

In policy implementation, the knowledge that leads to its success is as necessary as the knowledge of its possible alternative paths. Cartwright and Hardie’s approach [(2012). Evidence-Based policy. A practical guide to doing it better. Oxford University Press.] accounts for the first but ignores the chance that a policy may ‘deviate’ from the desired outcome. The problem lies in whether these deviations lead to substantially negative consequences. The present paper offers a conceptual account meant to complement Cartwright and Hardie’s approach. It is argued that a policy maker’s decision should not be based exclusively on a policy’s chances of success, but also on the consequences of potential alternative results, that is, on what there is to gain or to lose if a policy succeeds or fails.