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Estimating rates of population change for a neotropical parrot with ratio, mark-recapture and matrix methods

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  • Brett Sandercock
  • Steven Beissinger

Abstract

Robust methods for estimating rates of population change ( u ) are necessary for applied and theoretical goals in conservation and evolutionary biology. Traditionally, u has been calculated from either ratios of population counts (observed u or u obs ), or population models based on projection matrices (asymptotic u or u asy ,). New mark-recapture methods permit calculation of u from mark-resighting information alone (realized u or u rea ), but empirical comparisons with other methods are rare. In this paper, rates of population change were calculated for a population of green-rumped parrotlets ( Forpus passerinus ) that have been studied for more than a decade in central Venezuela. First, a ratio method based on counts of detected birds was used to calculate u obs. Next, a temporal symmetry method based on mark-recapture data (i.e. the u -parameterization introduced by Pradel, 1996) was used to calculate u rea . Finally, a stage-structured matrix model based on state-specific estimates of fecundity, immigration, local survival, and transition rates was used to calculate u asy . Analyses were conducted separately for females and males. Overall values of u ⁁from the three methods were consistent and all indicated that the finite rate of population change was not significantly different from 1. Annual values of u from the three methods were also in general agreement for a majority of years. However, u rea from the temporal symmetry method had the greatest precision, and apparently better accuracy than u asy . Unrealistic annual values of u asy could have been due to poor estimates of the transitional probability of becoming a breeder ( ‚ ) or to a mismatch between the actual and the asymptotic stable stage distribution. In this study, the trade-off between biological realism and accuracy was better met by the temporal symmetry than the matrix method. Our results suggest that the temporal symmetry models can be applied with confidence to populations where less information may be available.

Suggested Citation

  • Brett Sandercock & Steven Beissinger, 2002. "Estimating rates of population change for a neotropical parrot with ratio, mark-recapture and matrix methods," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1-4), pages 589-607.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:29:y:2002:i:1-4:p:589-607
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760120108818
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