IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/irapec/v33y2019i5p601-623.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting inflation using the Phillips curve in inflation targeting countries

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Gabrielyan

Abstract

This paper studies the forecasting ability of various Phillips curve specifications for 1 year ahead headline and underlying core inflation measures for three open currently inflation targeting (IT) countries: Sweden, Canada and New Zealand. The changes of the monetary policy regime in these countries are discussed for periods of fixed exchange rate regime, early years of IT and later periods in the light of inflation forecasting accuracy. The paper finds evidence that Phillips curve models can improve inflation forecasts against the random walk benchmark in the periods when the central bank is explicitly targeting the inflation. Yet, the results from earlier periods indicate heterogeneity in individual model performance across various econometric specifications and different sample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Gabrielyan, 2019. "Forecasting inflation using the Phillips curve in inflation targeting countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 601-623, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:33:y:2019:i:5:p:601-623
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2018.1516740
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02692171.2018.1516740
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02692171.2018.1516740?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:33:y:2019:i:5:p:601-623. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.