Trade, catching-up and divergence
This paper investigates the link between trade and convergence in per capita income by applying a threshold methodology to standard growth regressions in order to capture a nonlinear effect of trade on growth. We use 10 trade measures, divided into trade intensity ratios and measure of trade restrictions. For the former group of indicators only, our tests show that linear models have to be rejected in favour of threshold regressions. We have identified three different regimes, characterized by different relationships between growth and its determinants. Countries belonging to the regimes grouping higher-income economies and poorer countries are diverging. The conditional convergence hypothesis is only accepted in the regime of middle-income countries; a process of catching-up can be mainly found in the case of few developing countries. For the vast majority of developing countries, divergence in per capita income seems to be the norm. The correlation between measures of trade restrictions and growth is different across regimes, and the positive effect of a decrease in tariffs on growth depends on the level of development; for the majority of the developing countries included in our sample a decrease in tariffs will have no effect on growth.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CIRA20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:23:y:2009:i:3:p:239-264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.