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Trade with China: do the figures add up?

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  • Chao-Dong Huang
  • Simon Broadbent

Abstract

There are wide discrepancies in bilateral trade data compiled by China and by its trading partners, particularly the United States. This paper investigates the main reasons, notably the role of Hong Kong as an entrepot, and develops a methodology to provide more accurate estimates for these trade flows. It extends the Sung—Lardy method in recent literature and achieves a reconciliation of the two data sets by China and by its major partners. The method recognizes that both the Chinese and the partners' data are likely to be distorted and demonstrates that a complete picture can he constructed by using data recorded from Hong Kong. A new estimate of the re-export margins in Hong Kong on Chinese exports is presented and used in the data reconciliation exercises, and problems of valuation and transit lag when comparing an export series with its counterpart import series are taken into account by the new method. The effects of using proved data are demonstrated in an application to examine fair market access in China—US bilateral trade undertaken by Tower (1993).

Suggested Citation

  • Chao-Dong Huang & Simon Broadbent, 1998. "Trade with China: do the figures add up?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 107-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:107-127
    DOI: 10.1080/026921719800000028
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert A. Blecker, 1998. "International Capital Mobility, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and the Risk of Global Contraction," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-10, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School, revised Nov 2000.
    2. Davie, Cheryl & Veeman, Michele M., 2007. "China: Export Market Prospects and Alberta's Agriculture Sector," Information Bulletins 7707, University of Alberta, Western Centre for Economic Research.

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