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External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mongolia: Evidence from a Large Bayesian VAR

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  • Gan-Ochir Doojav
  • Davaajargal Luvsannyam

Abstract

This paper examines macroeconomic effects of external shocks and their transmission mechanisms in one of the most commodity-abundant countries-Mongolia using a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) based on the approach proposed by Bańbura, Giannone, and Reichlin [(2010). Large Bayesian Vector Auto Regressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 71–92]. Nine structural shocks (five external and four domestic shocks) are identified using a recursive ordering. Results show that external shocks are important sources of macroeconomic volatility in Mongolia. Commodity price shocks affect the economy through exchange rate and budget expenditure channels, while China’s growth and FDI shocks are primarily transmitted through the real sector and bank lending channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gan-Ochir Doojav & Davaajargal Luvsannyam, 2019. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mongolia: Evidence from a Large Bayesian VAR," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 42-64, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:33:y:2019:i:1:p:42-64
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2019.1570301
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    Cited by:

    1. Odmaa Narantungalag,, 2022. "The effects of natural resource extraction on household expenditure patterns: Evidence from Mongolia," Discussion Papers 2204, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    2. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Enkh-Amgalan, Elbegjargal, 2023. "Effects of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in a commodity-exporting developing economy," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka & Dauda Olalekan Yinusa, 2023. "External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 132-153, January.
    4. Narantungalag, Odmaa, 2022. "The effects of natural resource extraction on household expenditure patterns: Evidence from Mongolia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1077, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Syed Hasan & Odmaa Narantungalag, & Martin Berka, 2022. "No pain, no gain? Mining pollution and morbidity," Discussion Papers 2203, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    6. Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal, 2020. "Asymmetric transmission and effects of resource shocks: Case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 104641, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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