How Does Upzoning Impact Residential Mobility Among Low-Income Households? Evidence from New York City

As housing costs escalate, upzoning has emerged as a policy tool to expand the supply base and improve housing affordability. Although previous research has examined the relationship between upzoning and housing prices and supply, minimal research has examined how upzoning impacts residential mobility outcomes. We use household-level residential mobility data to examine the effect of upzoning on low-income renter households in New York City. Using propensity score matching and survival analysis, we find that upzoning slightly increased the risk of out-migration among low-income households. This risk grows as upzoning intensity increases, though the overall effect remains small. We further find that upzonings implemented later in the study period were associated with reduced out-migration, though further research is needed to ascertain the cause. Last, results provide suggestive evidence that some subsidized housing programs may help reduce displacement, though the magnitude of effects is modest and not consistent across programs.