Which Target is the Right Target? The Connection Between Terrorists’ Reputation Building and Target Selection

Terrorist organizations do not attack random targets, but rather there is a strategic logic behind their target selection. Given that some common targets are associated with significant reputational costs, risks, and repercussions to terrorist organizations, what explains their targeting choices? Utilizing the Reputation of Terror Groups Dataset and including indicators from the Global Terrorism Database, we argue that targeting choices of terrorist organizations hinge on their reputational concerns with respect to their core constituents. Groups that invest in building a positive reputation in the eyes of their intended constituents are inclined toward concentrating a larger number of their attacks on hard targets, whereas groups that engage in reputationally-damaging actions that harm their constituents are more likely to go after civilian targets in larger numbers. Our results show that there is indeed a statistically significant and important relationship between reputation building and target selection by terrorist groups.