Losing Hearts and Minds: Civil Conflict, Counterinsurgency Policing and Postwar Crime in Insurgent Strongholds

Postwar countries often experience high levels of crime. A frequent explanation is that these countries exhibit inefficient and illegitimate state security apparatuses that cannot enforce law and order, and that contribute to an environment conducive to crime. Theoretical arguments outlining how an environment conducive to crime comes about as consequences of armed conflict have remained generic and empirical evidence is scant. Building on theoretical insights from the micro dynamics of civil wars, counterinsurgency policing and environmental criminology, this study makes a contribution by theoretically developing and empirically exploring how local conflict dynamics in insurgent strongholds shape police-community relations in a way that undermines the extent to which the police can handle crime in a postwar context. The suggested causal process is explored in the context of West Belfast (Northern Ireland) from 1969–2008. The analysis indicates overall support for it, though with important nuances.