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Ukraine War in context: patterns of Russian cyber-warfare aggression, 2022–2024

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  • Rebecca E. Rempe

Abstract

In lock-step with the bizarre diplomatic developments that have enveloped a Trump II so-called Ukraine ‘peace plan’, Russian irregular warfare (IW) assaults in the cyber domain remain active. On the eve of Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s Gray Zone strategy in cyberspace and the consequences of a potential cyber war were subjects of speculation, debate, and much concern. Now, detailed examination of the regional theater reveals that Moscow’s cyber operations and campaigns against Ukraine were actually correlated more broadly with cyber and information manipulation in Estonia and Poland. This places them in a different light. Assessment of available data reveals that Moscow’s cyber strategy aligned, albeit imperfectly, with its kinetic strategy across the three cases in a concerted effort to manipulate, coerce, and fragment designated opponents through the cyber domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca E. Rempe, 2026. "Ukraine War in context: patterns of Russian cyber-warfare aggression, 2022–2024," Small Wars and Insurgencies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1189-1230, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:fswixx:v:37:y:2026:i:5:p:1189-1230
    DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2026.2630057
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