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The potential impact of the Italian ‘premierato’ reform on cabinet durability: the increased risk of early elections

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  • Andrea Pedrazzani
  • Francesco Zucchini

Abstract

This article evaluates the potential impact of the ‘premierato’ reform – currently under debate in the Italian parliament – on government stability. Promoted by the Meloni government, the reform proposes the direct election of the prime minister and aims to increase the stability of Italian cabinets. Using comparative data and a competing risks survival analysis, we estimate the risk of termination for Italian cabinets in various constitutional scenarios. Results suggest that the reform would reduce inter-electoral cabinet replacements but increase the risk of early elections. While overall cabinet duration would improve with the ‘premierato’ reform, greater stability could be achieved through the implementation of a constructive vote of no-confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Pedrazzani & Francesco Zucchini, 2025. "The potential impact of the Italian ‘premierato’ reform on cabinet durability: the increased risk of early elections," South European Society and Politics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 351-385, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:fsesxx:v:30:y:2025:i:3:p:351-385
    DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2025.2588561
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