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Possible effects of cheap fentanyl on drug markets, use, and harm: A theoretical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan P. Caulkins
  • Shawn D. Bushway
  • H. Brinton Milward
  • Peter Reuter

Abstract

The spread of illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF) has been a public health disaster in Canada and the United States, driving overdose deaths to unprecedented levels. It has also changed the production function for drug traffickers, most notably by radically reducing raw materials costs for those producing illegal opioids. This paper explores possible consequences of that cost reduction through the eyes of the actors who comprise the drug supply chain, including Chinese firms who supply Mexican Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) with the precursors of fentanyl, the TCOs responsible for manufacturing fentanyl and shipping it across the U.S. border, the multiple layers of the domestic drug distribution network, along with the money launderers who help facilitate this illegal market. This paper then sketches potential long-run implications for the structure, conduct and performance of the illegal opioid supply industry, and some potential consequences for drug law enforcement organisations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan P. Caulkins & Shawn D. Bushway & H. Brinton Milward & Peter Reuter, 2026. "Possible effects of cheap fentanyl on drug markets, use, and harm: A theoretical analysis," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 61-80, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:fglcxx:v:27:y:2026:i:1:p:61-80
    DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2025.2561658
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