The Next Catch: spotting surging entrepreneurial ecosystems

Entrepreneurial ecosystems are powerful engines of regional innovation, competitiveness, and transformation. While established hubs like Silicon Valley and Shenzhen are well studied, identifying emerging ecosystems with high growth potential remains a challenge. This study introduces the Surge Ecosystems Index, a forward-looking tool for detecting surging entrepreneurial activity at the sub-regional level. The index evaluates six dimensions – Innovation Capacity, Capital Fluidity, Skills Development, Market Reach, Entrepreneurial Culture, and Visibility – over a five-year period. Using Italian provinces (NUTS-3) as the empirical context, we integrate official statistics and web-scraped data to construct and validate the index. Results reveal geographical heterogeneity, with several provinces showing strong upward momentum despite not being traditional entrepreneurial hotspots. The index correlates positively with high-growth firm density, confirming its potential as an early-stage detection tool for policymakers and investors. This study advances entrepreneurial ecosystem theory by integrating temporal and micro-foundational perspectives, shifting from static assessments to dynamic, predictive analysis. The Surge Ecosystems Index offers a novel approach to identifying and supporting emerging entrepreneurial ecosystems, with implications for both research and policy. Future work should explore cross-contextual validation and refinement for broader applicability.