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The great spatial reshuffling: how motorways reorganized population and ageing in Portugal

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  • Bruno T. Rocha
  • Patrícia C. Melo
  • Isabel Proença

Abstract

This study finds that local population growth caused by the development of the motorway network in Portugal is to be interpreted as a change in the spatial distribution of population within the country between 1981 and 2021. That is, local population gains correspond to losses in other municipalities, as the analysis does not identify any effects of motorways on international migration or natural growth. An extrapolation exercise using causal estimates suggests that this redistribution corresponds to about 7.4% of the country’s 2021 population. Importantly, this change in distribution is not neutral in terms of age structure, as motorways contribute to the relative rejuvenation of the population in the municipalities served by the network. Finally, the paper shows that, for the municipalities excluded from the network, the negative effects on population and demographic ageing increase nonlinearly with the distance to the nearest motorway access ramp.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno T. Rocha & Patrícia C. Melo & Isabel Proença, 2025. "The great spatial reshuffling: how motorways reorganized population and ageing in Portugal," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 1150-1171, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurpls:v:33:y:2025:i:7:p:1150-1171
    DOI: 10.1080/09654313.2025.2492873
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