Identifying Stakeholders' Views on Sustainable Urban Transition: Desirability, Utility and Probability Assessments of Scenarios

The assessment of different urban planning scenarios by stakeholders can yield important insights which, in turn, inform sustainable urban transition. Yet to gain in-depth insight, this assessment needs to be multi-faceted and should go beyond a unidimensional “most/least desired” approach. Accordingly, we use indicators that distinguish between desirability, utility and probability assessments. We compare these assessments within and between various stakeholder groups based on a set of literature-based hypotheses. We constructed six planning scenarios, systematically varied with respect to sustainability for the case study, “Erlenmatt”, a major urban redevelopment area in Switzerland. Three stakeholder groups (housing suppliers, the non-profit & public sector and housing target groups, n = 80) were investigated. The results of the statistical analyses suggest that more sustainable scenarios are preferred with respect to both their desirability and utility and that their probability is not lower than that of the other scenarios. The non-profit & public sector is the most pessimistic about the probability of a sustainable district while housing suppliers desire it less. We conclude that such detailed subjective scenario assessments can provide informative and detailed guidance for sustainable urban transition.