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Discounting earnings with stochastic discount rates

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  • Marco Realdon

Abstract

This paper presents new equity valuation formulae in closed form that extend the abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation of Ohlson [2005. “On Accounting-Based Valuation Formulae.” Review of Accounting Studies 10: 323–347] to the cases of time-varying or stochastic cost of capital as in Ang and Liu [2004. “How to Discount Cash Flows with Time-Varying Expected Returns.” Journal of Finance 59 (6): 2745–2783] or to cases of stochastic interest rates as in Ang and Liu [2001. “A General Affine Earnings Valuation Model.” Review of Accounting Studies 6: 397–425]. Interest rates are modelled by quadratic term structure models, which are not hindered by restrictions to factors correlation or by other shortcomings of affine term structure models in discounting long-term earnings. This is crucial since valuation can be very sensitive to the correlation between the factors driving earnings and interest rates. Positive correlation reduces price-earnings ratios according to US data. Valuation is also sensitive to the ‘volatility’ of abnormal earnings growth. The residual earnings risk-neutral valuation of Ang and Liu (2001) is adapted to quadratic term structure models.

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  • Marco Realdon, 2019. "Discounting earnings with stochastic discount rates," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 910-936, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:25:y:2019:i:10:p:910-936
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2018.1548368
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    Cited by:

    1. Leslie Rodríguez-Valencia & Prosper Lamothe-Fernández & David Alaminos, 2023. "The market value of SMEs: a comparative study between private and listed firms in alternative stock markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 95-117, March.

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