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The lead-lag relation between the stock and the bond markets

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  • Konstantinos Tolikas

Abstract

I examine the relative informational efficiency of bonds and the underlying stocks through the lead-lag relation between their daily returns. I find that stock returns lead the returns of high yield bonds but not those of investment grade bonds, which indicates that the stock market is relatively more informational efficient than the bond market. The findings imply trading opportunities for the bonds that are highly sensitive to the release of new information. I also find that stocks detect impending defaults earlier than bonds, which implies that bond holders may have enough time to protect their capital.

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  • Konstantinos Tolikas, 2018. "The lead-lag relation between the stock and the bond markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 849-866, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:24:y:2018:i:10:p:849-866
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2017.1340320
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Gomes, Pedro & Kurter, Zeynep O. & Morita, Rubens, 2022. "European Sovereign Bond and Stock Market Granger Causality Dynamics," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1405, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Bruce Burton & Satish Kumar & Nitesh Pandey, 2020. "Twenty-five years of The European Journal of Finance (EJF): a retrospective analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(18), pages 1817-1841, December.

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