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Backward induction and expected value calculations in an anonymous XVth century Italian manuscript

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  • Pavlo Blavatskyy

Abstract

Blaise Pascal famously calculated the expected value of a risky lottery in the 1654 correspondence with Pierre de Fermat in the context of the so-called points problem. Pascal solved this problem by backward induction, whereas Fermat—by counting combinations. This paper analyzes a more complex version of the points problem from an anonymous XVth century Italian manuscript stored in the Vatican Apostolic Library. In this manuscript, the problem of points is solved by backward induction in a similar way to Pascal’s train of thought. In this light, Pascal’s pioneering contribution may be not as novel as it is traditionally believed.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2023. "Backward induction and expected value calculations in an anonymous XVth century Italian manuscript," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 596-605, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eujhet:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:596-605
    DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2023.2225867
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    Cited by:

    1. Maristella Botticini & Pietro Buri & Massimo Marinacci, 2023. "Presidential Address 2023: The Beauty of Uncertainty: The Rise of Insurance Contracts and Markets in Medieval Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2287-2326.

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