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Bayesian semiparametric multivariate stochastic volatility with application

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  • Martina Danielova Zaharieva
  • Mark Trede
  • Bernd Wilfling

Abstract

In this article, we establish a Cholesky-type multivariate stochastic volatility estimation framework, in which we let the innovation vector follow a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM), thus enabling us to model highly flexible return distributions. The Cholesky decomposition allows parallel univariate process modeling and creates potential for estimating high-dimensional specifications. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior simulation and predictive density computation. We apply our framework to a five-dimensional stock-return data set and analyze international stock-market co-movements among the largest stock markets. The empirical results show that our DPM modeling of the innovation vector yields substantial gains in out-of-sample density forecast accuracy when compared with the prevalent benchmark models.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Danielova Zaharieva & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2020. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate stochastic volatility with application," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 947-970, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:39:y:2020:i:9:p:947-970
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2020.1761152
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Donelli, Nicola & Peluso, Stefano & Mira, Antonietta, 2021. "A Bayesian semiparametric vector Multiplicative Error Model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Bjoern Schulte-Tillmann & Mawuli Segnon & Timo Wiedemann, 2023. "A comparison of high-frequency realized variance measures: Duration- vs. return-based approaches," CQE Working Papers 10523, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    3. Bjoern Schulte-Tillman & Mawuli Segnon & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "Financial-market volatility prediction with multiplicative Markov-switching MIDAS components," CQE Working Papers 9922, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    5. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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