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Multistep forecast selection for panel data

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  • Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy

Abstract

We develop a new set of model selection methods for direct multistep forecasting of panel data vector autoregressive processes. Model selection is based on minimizing the estimated multistep quadratic forecast risk among candidate models. To attenuate the small sample bias of the least squares estimator, models are fitted using bias-corrected least squares. We provide conditions sufficient for the new selection criteria to be asymptotically efficient as n (cross sections) and T (time series) approach infinity. The new criteria outperform alternative selection methods in an empirical application to forecasting metropolitan statistical area population growth in the US.

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  • Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2020. "Multistep forecast selection for panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 373-406, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:39:y:2020:i:4:p:373-406
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2019.1651490
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    Cited by:

    1. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2022. "Forecast combination for VARs in large N and T panels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 142-164.

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