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Moving Average-Based Estimators of Integrated Variance

Author

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  • Peter Hansen
  • Jeremy Large
  • Asger Lunde

Abstract

We examine moving average (MA) filters for estimating the integrated variance (IV) of a financial asset price in a framework where high-frequency price data are contaminated with market microstructure noise. We show that the sum of squared MA residuals must be scaled to enable a suitable estimator of IV. The scaled estimator is shown to be consistent, first-order efficient, and asymptotically Gaussian distributed about the integrated variance under restrictive assumptions. Under more plausible assumptions, such as time-varying volatility, the MA model is misspecified. This motivates an extensive simulation study of the merits of the MA-based estimator under misspecification. Specifically, we consider nonconstant volatility combined with rounding errors and various forms of dependence between the noise and efficient returns. We benchmark the scaled MA-based estimator to subsample and realized kernel estimators and find that the MA-based estimator performs well despite the misspecification.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hansen & Jeremy Large & Asger Lunde, 2008. "Moving Average-Based Estimators of Integrated Variance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 79-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:27:y:2008:i:1-3:p:79-111
    DOI: 10.1080/07474930701853640
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