Invisible chains of conflict: economy-wide spillovers from an agricultural shock in Ukraine – mixed input–output evidence

This article quantifies how a conflict-related agricultural supply shock propagates through Ukraine’s economy. Instead of the conventional demand-driven Leontief model, we use a mixed input – output model that introduces the shock directly as a capacity constraint in agriculture. In our central scenario, a 25% reduction in the agricultural workforce leads to a 4.6% decline in GDP, and impacts spread rapidly beyond farming. Sectors highly dependent on agricultural inputs are hit hardest, with chemicals (−30%) and motor vehicles (−28.8%) showing the largest losses, while public services remain comparatively stable. Sensitivity and robustness checks indicate near proportional effects, consistent with fixed-coefficient technologies and short-run rigidities. The results reveal a hierarchy of vulnerabilities and provide policy-relevant benchmarks to help secure critical supply chains and strengthen economic resilience against cascading shocks.