Tracking China’s household carbon footprint (1997–2017): insights from drives and supply chain analyses

Rising household consumption has significantly increased China’s carbon footprint, posing challenges to its ‘2060 carbon neutral’ target. Herein we examine the evolution of household emissions from 1997 to 2017 by combining structural decomposition analysis (SDA) with structural path analysis (SPA). Results show that indirect emissions attributed to Chinese households have been stabilizing, while their direct emissions – particularly in rural areas – continue to grow. Improved energy efficiency, a cleaner energy mix, greener production, and greener household consumption have lowered indirect CO2 emissions since 2007. SPA further identifies that a few sectors, like electric power generation and transportation services, have developed longer and more fragmented supply chains, countering upstream efficiency gains. Thus, our combined SDA and SPA approach enables new insight into what drives changes in CO2 emissions. We consequently recommend access to cleaner energy resources, targeted mitigation policies, and government support of low-carbon lifestyles.