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Predicting Negative Effects Of The Second Intifada: An Ex-Post Evaluation Of Some Models


  • Paul de Boer
  • Marco Missaglia


In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Missaglia (DBM) constructed models for the estimation of the 2002 macro-economic indicators of the economy of Palestine. In 2007, IMF and WB provided the consensus estimates of these figures using data that are more up-to-date and more complete than those available in 2003. This note proposes an ex-post evaluation of the predictive performance of the models of WB, DBM and IMF. A comparison of the models of WB and DBM, which are both micro-founded computable general equilibrium models using the same data, reveals that DBM strongly outperforms WB. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs much better. A comparison of DBM with IMF (a simple macro-founded income-expenditure model) also shows that our model performs better.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2010. "Predicting Negative Effects Of The Second Intifada: An Ex-Post Evaluation Of Some Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 193-199.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:2:p:193-199 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2010.484013

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Thomas R. Plaut, 1981. "An Econometric Model for Forecasting Regional Population Growth," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 6(1), pages 53-70, April.
    7. Scott Loveridge, 2004. "A Typology and Assessment of Multi-sector Regional Economic Impact Models," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 305-317.
    8. Finnoff, David & Tschirhart, John, 2003. "Harvesting in an eight-species ecosystem," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 589-611, May.
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