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Uncertainty Analysis For Multi-Region Input-Output Models - A Case Study Of The Uk'S Carbon Footprint


  • Manfred Lenzen
  • Richard Wood
  • Thomas Wiedmann


This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfred Lenzen & Richard Wood & Thomas Wiedmann, 2010. "Uncertainty Analysis For Multi-Region Input-Output Models - A Case Study Of The Uk'S Carbon Footprint," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 43-63.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:43-63 DOI: 10.1080/09535311003661226

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Misato Sato, 2014. "Embodied Carbon In Trade: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 831-861, December.
    2. repec:eee:enepol:v:110:y:2017:i:c:p:69-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lan, Jun & Malik, Arunima & Lenzen, Manfred & McBain, Darian & Kanemoto, Keiichiro, 2016. "A structural decomposition analysis of global energy footprints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 436-451.
    4. Kumar, Indraneel & Tyner, Wallace E. & Sinha, Kumares C., 2016. "Input–output life cycle environmental assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from utility scale wind energy in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 294-301.
    5. Robert Miehe & Rene Scheumann & Christopher M. Jones & Daniel M. Kammen & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2016. "Regional carbon footprints of households: a German case study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 577-591, April.
    6. de Koning, Arjan & Bruckner, Martin & Lutter, Stephan & Wood, Richard & Stadler, Konstantin & Tukker, Arnold, 2015. "Effect of aggregation and disaggregation on embodied material use of products in input–output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 289-299.
    7. repec:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:632-642 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wiedmann, Thomas & Wilting, Harry C. & Lenzen, Manfred & Lutter, Stephan & Palm, Viveka, 2011. "Quo Vadis MRIO? Methodological, data and institutional requirements for multi-region input-output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 1937-1945, September.
    9. Jonas Karstensen & Glen Peters & Robbie Andrew, 2015. "Allocation of global temperature change to consumers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 43-55, March.
    10. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:550-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hamilton, Thomas Gerard Adam & Kelly, Scott, 2017. "Low carbon energy scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa: An input-output analysis on the effects of universal energy access and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 303-319.
    13. Guo, Ju’e & Zhang, Zengkai & Meng, Lei, 2012. "China’s provincial CO2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 486-497.
    14. Fu, Xue & Lahr, Michael & Yaxiong, Zhang & Meng, Bo, 2017. "Actions on climate change, Intended Reducing carbon emissions in China via optimal industry shifts: Toward hi-tech industries, cleaner resources and higher carbon shares in less-develop regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 616-638.
    15. Kucukvar, Murat & Cansev, Bunyamin & Egilmez, Gokhan & Onat, Nuri C. & Samadi, Hamidreza, 2016. "Energy-climate-manufacturing nexus: New insights from the regional and global supply chains of manufacturing industries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 889-904.
    16. Dario Debowicz, 2016. "A social accounting matrix for Iraq," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Stefan Giljum & Hanspeter Wieland & Stephan Lutter & Martin Bruckner & Richard Wood & Arnold Tukker & Konstantin Stadler, 2016. "Identifying priority areas for European resource policies: a MRIO-based material footprint assessment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, December.
    18. Hardt, Lukas & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2017. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 198-211.
    19. Caggiani, Leonardo & Ottomanelli, Michele & Dell’Orco, Mauro, 2014. "Handling uncertainty in Multi Regional Input-Output models by entropy maximization and fuzzy programming," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 159-172.


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