Pace, Pattern and Phase: A Morphology of Cycles
A closed dynamic Leontief model is implemented for the Business, Government and Household sectors of the Hungarian and the US economies at the end of the past century. It is built on rough estimates of its flow and stock coefficients. The growth rate and the length and pattern of the four most familiar cycles are reasonably well approximated by the model and are similar for the two countries in spite of the large discrepancy in the proportions of the equilibrium quantity vectors. The mathematics of cycles (for discrete or continuous time) is also discussed. Fluctuations are shown to be the elementary, basic and unavoidable consequence of all productive activities. They will emerge even in the absence of any price mechanism.
Volume (Year): 16 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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