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Who Suffers More? Armed Conflict Exposure and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Aceh, Indonesia

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  • Novianti Harlenci Banunu
  • Mohamad Ikhsan
  • Nachrowi Djalal Nachrowi
  • Rabin Hattari

Abstract

This study quantifies the microeconomic impact of the Aceh conflict on various educational outcomes among children in Aceh, Indonesia, from 1989 to 2004. Combining data from the National Socioeconomic Survey with conflict data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), we identify causal effects using exogenous spatial variations in conflict exposure linked to the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) insurgency. Conflict exposure is measured through the dynamics of fatalities and conflict events at the village level. The findings reveal that exposure to GAM conflict significantly reduces educational attainment, with effects varying across birth cohorts with different conflict experiences. Individuals exposed to conflict during schooling experience a reduction of 3.8 years. Concurrently, an increase in conflict results in an 8 percent decline in the average rate of compulsory education completion. Individuals exposed to nearly all phases of the conflict are more likely to fail to complete elementary school or face greater school delays. Conversely, those exposed only to the open conflict phase experience disruption in education quality. These results are robust to alternative measures of conflict exposure, different definitions of the control group, and placebo tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Novianti Harlenci Banunu & Mohamad Ikhsan & Nachrowi Djalal Nachrowi & Rabin Hattari, 2026. "Who Suffers More? Armed Conflict Exposure and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Aceh, Indonesia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 395-421, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:37:y:2026:i:3:p:395-421
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2025.2540302
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