Nationalism, leaders, and four forms of terrorist groups

Whether political leaders playing the nationalist card to enhance their legitimacy provoke the activity of terrorist groups is an important yet underexplored question. I argue that there is a positive association between nationalist leaders and certain types of terrorist groups, depending on the ideology of the group. My analysis focuses on four specific group ideologies: ethnonationalist, left-wing, right-wing, and religious fundamentalist. Specifically, I conceptualize that: 1) nationalist leaders amplify the activity of ethnonationalist terrorist groups that advocate for the interests of ethnic others, 2) nationalist politics diminish the activity of left-wing groups primarily focused on addressing economic inequality, 3) nationalist leaders empower right-wing groups that target perceived outgroup members, and 4) nationalist politics increase the activity of religious fundamentalist groups that resist persecution based on their beliefs. The empirical findings indicate some deviations from these expectations. Nationalistic leadership is a significant driver of activity among ethnonationalist and religious fundamentalist terrorist groups, reduces the engagement of left-wing groups, and has minimal impact on right-wing groups. Overall, this analysis suggests that nationalist leaders present a security risk, as their actions likely incite, rather than mitigate, the activities of specific terrorist groups.