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The economic costs and benefits of the European Future Combat Air System

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  • Tobias Mueller

Abstract

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a sixth-generation advanced combat aircraft, is assumed to be the largest European defence development and production programme of the 21st century and a core pillar of European cooperation in the defence sector. The 2017-initiated collaboration programme is led by Germany and France, with Spain and Belgium joining as partners, and is a who-is-who of the largest European defence companies, including Airbus Defence and Space, Thales, Safran, MBDA, and MTU. While such defence programmes have significant military, political, industrial, and economic impacts, the economic dimension in terms of economic costs and benefits is often under-represented in academic discussions. As the FCAS is still a nascent programme, only rough estimates of the total programme cost are available, and assumptions range from €100 bn to more than a trillion. With our research, we aim to contribute to the academic discussion by estimating the true economic costs and benefits of the FCAS. We use a mixed approach of data triangulation by cross-checking open source intelligence (OSINT) with expert interviews to estimate the full programme life-cycle costs. Furthermore, we estimate its economic impact on the European gross value added, employment, and tax by utilising an input – output (IO) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Mueller, 2025. "The economic costs and benefits of the European Future Combat Air System," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 875-904, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:36:y:2025:i:6:p:875-904
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2025.2452867
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